The number of tourists is not decreasing a. Expert: “The rumor about a drop in domestic tourist flow comes from small maintenance companies. It's harder to see other tourists

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For the first time in 15 years, Moscow took part with its stand in the international tourism exhibition EMMIT in Istanbul. According to the Chairman of the Moscow Committee for Tourism and Hotel Industry Sergei Shpilko, this is due to the fact that the number of international arrivals from Turkey through Moscow airports is growing dynamically even in conditions of crisis and economic sanctions. Over the 9 months of last year, this figure amounted to 116.9 thousand arrivals, an increase of 8.5%. At the same time, in terms of the number of international arrivals through airports in the Moscow air zone, Turkey came in third place after China and Germany.

A middle class is actively forming in Turkey, which is showing increasing demand for travel for tourism purposes. Plus, the economic and cultural ties of our countries are generally developing positively, and tourism in this sense is no exception. Moreover, Moscow is increasingly adapting its hospitality industry to the needs of tourists from different countries. Non-profit organizations carry out voluntary certification of hotels for compliance with the needs of tourists, for example Chinese ones - “Chinafriendly”, as well as certification of hotels for compliance with Halal requirements. The first such certificate was received by the Aerostar Hotel.

According to Lyubov Shiyan, Marketing Director of the Aerostar Hotel, who participated in the Moscow stand, “The Turkish market is strategically important for Moscow companies and hotels due to the changed political and economic situation. The exhibition is going well, there is a lot of interest in the work of the Moscow stand, and the atmosphere is very friendly.”

According to another exhibitor, representative of the TariTur company Nikita Monakhov, manager of the sales department of the TariTur company, “The Turkish market is one of the most promising at the moment. The number of tourists from Turkey visiting Moscow has increased.” Therefore, the company opened the TariTour Byhadir office in Istanbul.

Speaking at the presentation of Moscow and Kazan, Deputy Minister of Culture and Tourism of the Republic of Turkey Abdurrahman Arici said: “The number of tourists from Russia in 2014 amounted to 4 million people. It’s time for my compatriots to repay their debt of hospitality to the Russians by becoming better acquainted with their sights and cultural values.”

Moscow, according to Sergei Shpilko, who spoke at the presentation, “once again came up with proposals for price-quality ratio, which are difficult to refuse, which at this stage is facilitated by the change in the exchange rate of the ruble.” Questions from the Turkish travel industry concerned, first of all, the cost of transportation. But there are positive developments here too. Since 2013, Pegasus airline has been operating flights to Moscow using the low-cost transportation model, with ticket prices averaging $190. With the existing MoscowWeekends package offers on the market, it is quite possible to fit a stay in Moscow into an average of $300 per person.

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Every sixth inhabitant of the Earth is a tourist. The total contribution of tourism to global GDP reaches $7.2 trillion. The industry directly or indirectly supports one in 11 jobs worldwide. Since last year, tourism has been affected by several global factors: strong fluctuations in world currencies, falling oil prices and deteriorating security situations in many regions of the world. Despite this, the industry not only copes with difficulties, but also continues to grow. Tourist flows have temporarily switched from risky destinations to safer ones. And weakening currencies and falling prices for raw materials have made a number of countries, and in particular Russia, more attractive for inbound tourism.

Compiled by: Olga Shkurenko

Artist: Vera Zhegalina

Tourist flow towards Asia

Tourist numbers are rising, demonstrating the industry's ability to adapt to economic instability and the dire international security situation.

In 2015, the number of tourists in the world reached 1.186 billion, an increase of half a billion in a year. After the crisis of 2008–2009, the tourist flow has consistently shown growth exceeding 4% per year. According to the forecast of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), in the coming years the number of tourists will continue to increase by an average of 3.3% per year and will reach 1.8 billion by 2030. The flow of tourists to developing countries will grow twice as fast as to developed countries - by 4.4% versus 2.2%. As a result, by 2030, Asia, Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Africa will account for 57% of all international arrivals, while now more than half of tourists flock to Europe. The development of new destinations is also facilitated by the fact that air transport confidently takes the place of the main means of transportation for tourists. Thus, in 2015, the total volume of passenger air traffic in the world increased by 6.5%.

Russia remained in the top ten popular destinations, despite the fact that Moscow and St. Petersburg were at the top of the ranking of the most inhospitable cities in the world, compiled by readers of Travel+Leisure magazine

At the end of last year, France, the USA, Spain and China retained their leadership in the top 10 countries popular with tourists. They are the same, but in a different order, leading the top 10 in terms of tourism income (see part 2). Russia also remained in the top ten popular destinations, despite the fact that Moscow and St. Petersburg were at the top of the ranking of the most inhospitable cities in the world, compiled by readers of Travel+Leisure magazine.

As UNWTO experts note, in 2015 the tourism industry was influenced by several unfavorable factors - from strong currency fluctuations to the migration crisis and the growing terrorist threat. However, tourism traditionally quickly adapts to most shock situations. As noted in a study by IPK International, in recent years, serious damage to it on a global scale was caused only by the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States and the global economic crisis of 2008–2009. In both cases, the industry took one to two years to recover. Usually the period is shorter. The impact of various crises on tourism was also studied by analysts from the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). They concluded that the most negative effect is caused by political instability, which can reduce the attractiveness of an entire country or region indefinitely. After terrorist attacks, which a priori cause a more acute reaction, the tourist flow is restored much faster. Whatever happens, most tourists still go on trips, only switching to what they consider safer destinations. For example, recently many people have chosen the calmer shores of Spain, Portugal and Croatia instead of the popular summer resorts of Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey.

Tourist as a source of income

Tourism income has grown 12-fold since 1980. The weak euro and ruble have increased the attractiveness of the eurozone countries and Russia in the eyes of foreign tourists.

According to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), in 2015, global tourism revenues grew in real terms by 4.4%, to $1.26 trillion. The industry's total contribution to global GDP reaches $7.2 trillion. It directly or indirectly supports one in 11 jobs in the world. Last year, 2.5 million jobs were created directly serving tourists - in travel agencies, hotel business, air travel, and restaurants. The share of tourism in global exports of goods and services has grown to 7%, the industry is second only to the fuel and chemical industries and ahead of food production and the auto industry. The sector is forecast to outpace the global economy in 2016, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC).

In 2015, China and the United States were the leaders in terms of income from inbound tourism and, at the same time, in the amounts that tourists from different countries leave abroad. According to Global Blue, one of the largest Tax Free operators, Chinese tourists rule the global market for duty-free goods. The country ranks first in tourist spending on shopping, accounting for a third of all global sales. In 2015, the growth of Chinese spending on shopping abroad averaged 58% year-on-year, and in the first half of the year in the eurozone countries it reached 75%. A weak euro against the backdrop of a strong dollar is attracting more and more Americans to Europe. In the third quarter of last year, they were almost equal to the Chinese in terms of spending in the eurozone. American tourists occupy fourth place in the list of leaders in purchases abroad, their share is up to 5% of all sales.

Some Russian tourists “stayed at home” due to the difficult economic situation last year, and the Russian Federation dropped from second to third place in the top 5 global buyers. Meanwhile, the country can turn the ruble's weakness to its advantage by attracting tourists from abroad. One of the incentive measures could be the introduction of a Tax Free system, which is being discussed by the government. As the media reported in the spring, a thematic pilot project could be launched before the end of the year in Moscow's GUM, TSUM, Petrovsky Passage and several other luxury retailers. The minimum purchase amount on which foreigners can receive VAT is 10 thousand rubles. ($155).

The fact that the bet on a weak ruble is correct is also evidenced by Moscow’s inclusion in the ranking of the cheapest cities for foreign tourists, compiled by the online resource TripAdvisor. Three nights for two, including accommodation, two meals a day, entertainment and taxi, will cost $656. Thus, Moscow has become the most budget-friendly among European capitals. In terms of prices, it is almost equal to Bangkok.

Discovery of Russia

Russian tourists have difficulty finding alternatives to budget-friendly Turkey and Egypt. Part of the tourist flow turned to Russia.

The total number of foreign tourist trips by Russians in 2015 decreased by 20%, to 34.39 million. In the first quarter of 2016, it decreased by 22% year-on-year - to 1.48 million. The drop is significant, but almost half as much as last year: in the first quarter in the quarter of 2015 it reached 40.3%. As noted in the Russian Union of Tourism Industry, of the 50 countries that received the most Russians, only 15 showed an increase in tourist flow. According to the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR), in the summer season of 2016, sales of organized tours decreased by 25–30%. The tourism market continues to be affected by the depreciation of the ruble and the decline in the purchasing power of the population. According to the head of ATOR, Maya Lomidze, now Russian tourists are not ready to pay more than $600–700 for a tour abroad. Also, expenses at the resorts themselves are reduced, the most economical accommodation options are selected, and the depth of sales decreases.

In November 2015, the closure of Egypt and Turkey dealt a new blow to outbound tourism. According to Rosstat, in the first nine months of 2015, these two countries accounted for about 40% of all tourist trips by Russians. The lifting of restrictions on the sale of tours to Turkey in July caused a stir on Yandex (the number of requests was plus 1346% compared to June), but a recovery in the tourist flow this season should no longer be expected. Some tourists switched to other destinations. Tour operators have recorded an increase in interest in Tunisia, Thailand, Bulgaria and even the Dominican Republic. More attention began to be paid to Abkhazia and other former Soviet republics.

Some tourists began to explore Russia. According to Maya Lomidze, Sochi and the Krasnodar Territory were almost at maximum capacity this year, and Crimea still has little potential. Increased demand was recorded not only in the Black Sea resorts. In the first half of the year, the occupancy level of hotels in Moscow was 68%, and the profitability per room increased to 5.2 thousand rubles - record figures for the last five years. Foreign tourists began to pay more attention to the capital and other large Russian cities. The incoming tourist flow in the first quarter decreased, but only slightly - by 1%, to 252.6 thousand people. At the same time, Asian markets showed growth, a number of European countries, but most of all Iran (plus 100%) and India (plus 56%).

The authorities are also concerned about the development of domestic tourism. The Ministry of Culture has prepared a resolution on subsidizing tour operators at the rate of 1–2 thousand rubles. per person in case of sending tourists to Russian resorts. The program will require 6.75 billion rubles from the budget. Tourists themselves will also have to make their contribution to supporting the industry - President Putin supported the idea of ​​a resort fee. The Ministry of Finance assured that it will be acceptable for vacationers - 50–100 rubles.

Barrier-free world

The tourist attractiveness of the country depends not least on the ease of entry.

Visa policies of states greatly influence the development of tourism. If the costs of completing visa formalities (monetary, time, etc.) in a country are too high, the tourist will probably refuse to visit it altogether. Many countries are trying to remove barriers to tourists - of course, without compromising the security of their borders. A 2012 study found that easing the visa process in G20 countries could generate $206 billion in additional tourism revenue and create 5.1 million jobs over three years. According to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) for 2015, almost two thirds of the world's inhabitants (61%) still need to obtain a traditional visa to travel abroad. Almost 18% of the world's population is virtually unaffected by visa requirements. Visa procedures around the world have become significantly easier, especially in recent years. Between 2010 and 2015, 54 states significantly reduced requirements for citizens of more than 30 countries, providing the opportunity to obtain a visa on arrival, an electronic visa or enter without a visa at all.

51% of all visa regimes in 2015 were reciprocal, that is, citizens of each pair of states were subject to the same entry requirements, including in 17% of cases mutual visa waivers. The greatest mutual openness is observed in developed economies. In particular, in Europe, border controls between the 26 countries of the Schengen zone have been completely abolished. However, reciprocity aside, developing economies remain more open from a visa perspective. Regionally, the leaders are Southeast Asia, East Africa, the Caribbean and Oceania. The UN findings are confirmed by the Passport Index study, which shows that a number of countries in these regions do not require traditional visas at all, limiting themselves to stamps upon arrival at the airport. On the other hand, among the countries whose citizens find it easiest to travel around the world, developed economies led by Germany lead the way. According to the Visa Restrictions Index 2016, 177 countries and territories are open to visa-free entry for German passport holders. In total, in 2015, there were 48 tourist markets of “increased mobility” - citizens of these countries could visit at least half of the world’s countries without visas.

One of the most recent examples of lowering visa barriers is the establishment of the African Union passport in 2016, which aims to “realize the dream of visa-free travel for African citizens across their continent by 2020.” Russia passed a law in July allowing foreign fans to attend the 2018 FIFA World Cup without visas. According to ATOR estimates, this will attract more than 1 million people to the Russian Federation, who will bring the country at least $1 billion in income.

Tourist Choice Award

Spain leads in the number of environmentally friendly beaches. 587 of them are marked with “blue flags” - symbols of quality awarded annually by the Foundation for Environmental Education (FEE). The top five also includes Greece (430), Turkey (421 beaches), France (399) and Portugal (315). In the photo: Beach of Palma de Mallorca (Spain)

Singapore Changi Airport (pictured) in 2015 took first place in the ranking of the best airports for sleeping, published by the online resource The Guide to Sleeping in Airports. It offers passengers free sun loungers and massage chairs, dimly lit areas and a mini-hotel. The worst was Reykjavik Airport, where sleeping is generally prohibited

Irish Galway took first place in the ranking of the friendliest cities, compiled according to a survey of readers of Travel+Leisure magazine. Those who voted noted the hospitality and sense of humor of the local inhabitants. In addition, the city is famous for its love of holidays - on pedestrian streets and in pubs you can often meet performers of traditional Irish music

Dubai's Emirates took first place in the ranking of the best airlines in the world, compiled by Skytrax based on surveys of air travellers, in 2016. The airline began flying in 1985 with just two aircraft, and currently has a fleet of 230 aircraft flying to 140 destinations in 80 countries.

The Philippines' Palawan topped the ranking of the best islands chosen by Travel+Leisure magazine readers. It is famous for its blue lagoons, jungles, and mountains. One of the main attractions is the 8-kilometer underground river, listed as a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

The Nihiwatu Hotel on the Indonesian island of Sumba tops the ranking of the top 100 best hotels according to Travel+Leisure. The former shelter for surfers has turned into a luxury complex, the villas of which are stylized as the houses of the islanders. It features spas, restaurants and horseback riding. At the height of the season, prices can reach $12 thousand per night

According to Art Magazine, Paris' Louvre (pictured) is the most popular museum in the world. In 2015, it was visited by 8.6 million people. A year earlier, attendance was even higher - 9.2 million. Also in the top 3 leaders in terms of attendance in 2015 were the British Museum in London (6.8 million) and the New York Metropolitan (6.5 million)

Machu Picchu in Peru has been named the world's top attraction in the 2016 Travelers' Choice Awards by travel website TripAdvisor. The “Lost City of the Incas” is located in the heart of the Andes at an altitude of 2.4 thousand meters. Due to the large influx of tourists in 2011, the number of visitors was limited to 2,500 people per day, of which no more than 400 can climb Mount Huayna Picchu, which is part of the archaeological complex

The best amusement park in the world according to Travelers' Choice 2016 was Universal's Florida Islands Of Adventure. It includes eight themed islands, allowing you to travel to different worlds - from Jurassic Park to Harry Potter's school of magic. In 2015, the park was visited by 8.79 million people

The rating of the best tourist destinations in Russia from TripAdvisor in 2016 was topped by St. Petersburg. The second largest city in Russia, located on the banks of the Neva River, attracts tourists with monuments of art and culture, nightclubs, and restaurants with excellent cuisine. In 2015, it was visited by 6.5 million tourists, of which 2.5 million were foreigners

The number of people arriving from the Russian Federation to EU countries has fallen sharply, as stated by the European Travel Commission (ETC). According to the organization's experts, in 2015, the flow of tourists from Russia to the EU countries will depend on the decline in GDP, inflation rates, the weakening of the ruble, lower oil prices and the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. Given the forecasts, the number of Russian tourists is unlikely to increase this year.

For some European countries this is, of course, a sensitive loss, but overall in 2015 European tourism experienced consistent, stable growth due to successful marketing activities in all areas. The results for the first months of 2015 indicate a positive start to the tourist season and an increase in demand for travel services, along with the recovery of the region’s economy, the organization’s report on the results of the first quarter says. The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) expects global tourism to grow by an average of 3 to 4% in 2015, following a 4.7% increase in 2014. European tourism, according to ETC forecasts, will keep pace with global tourism and will grow on average by the same amount.

However, experts agree that some European countries may have economic problems due to a decrease in tourist flow from Russia. The number of Russian tourists in Europe in the first quarter of this year fell by 30% compared to the same period in 2014. At the same time, the decline in Russian tourist flow affected almost all countries in the region. “The only two European destinations that showed an increase in Russian tourist flows in January-March this year are Montenegro and Romania,” the ETC report notes. At the same time, an outflow of tourists is observed even in such traditional Russian markets as Türkiye and Estonia.

The fall in the flow of Russian tourists to the EU has been talked about for several days now. Thus, according to the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR), in the first quarter of this year the number of Russian tourists to such a popular country for our citizens as the Czech Republic decreased by almost half. The number of tourists decreased by 47.8%, overnight stays - by 47.7%. Due to this situation, transport companies whose business is related to the transportation of tourists are also suffering. For example, the German tour operator Nicko Cruises, which organized cruises on European rivers, announced the start of bankruptcy proceedings. The company explains its decision by the crisis in Russia and Ukraine, which led to a sharp drop in demand for river cruises and, as a result, a reduction in the company’s liquidity.

However, ETC believes that the situation is not so pessimistic: the Russian ruble has started to grow and today “is considered one of the most effective currencies of 2015, although with a weaker starting position.” The coming months will demonstrate how possible it is to level out the decline in Russian outbound tourism, the organization said in a statement. In the meantime, the European tourism market has to survive using its own resources: double-digit growth in the number of tourists at the intra-European level included Iceland (+31.4%), Croatia (+24.6%), Montenegro (+23.2%), Romania ( +13.1%), Hungary (+12.1%), Slovenia (+11.7%), Austria (+11.4%) and Serbia (+11%).

Against this background, the interest of Russian tourists in domestic destinations is growing. Demand for domestic tourism will grow, especially in the direction of Sochi. The overall demand for 4 and 5 star hotels may jump this year by up to 40%, tourism revenues by more than 50% (due to the additional influx of tourists from other countries), expects TeleTrade analyst Alexander Egorov. At the same time, the average bill will most likely increase by at least 15% to 4.8-5 thousand rubles for a day’s stay.

Asian countries remain popular for Russians, although the flow of tourists there, as well as to Europe, has fallen. The overall drop in demand for tour packages over the year was 40-50%. Thus, RBC reports, in Cambodia in the first months of 2015, according to the country’s Ministry of Tourism, the flow of tourists from the Russian Federation amounted to about 18.3 thousand people - 51% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In January - March, 95.8 thousand Russian citizens visited Vietnam, thereby representing a 27% drop. In 2014, the flow of Russians to Thailand fell by 8.6%, continuing to decline in 2015. The number of tourists visiting the Philippines in January fell by 12%.

The share of Russian tourists did not exceed 6% of the total European flow even in the calm year of 2013, when there was no talk of sanctions or devaluation of the ruble, says Margarita Gorsheneva, development director at QB Finance. So, she is sure that for the countries of central Europe the decrease in tourist flow from Russia will go unnoticed. By the way, it is the residents of the central EU countries, especially Germany, who form the main flows of tourists in the countries of southern Europe, Italy, Spain, and Greece, which are traditionally popular among Russians. Indeed, the expert admits, in winter the situation was somewhat different: the decreased demand for ski resorts (about 45%) among Russians significantly hit the tourism industries of Austria, Germany, Italy, and Andorra, but in the summer the tourist flow shifts to the south, and here the lost 30% is more than compensated both Europeans themselves and tourists from Asian countries (Korea and China), where the demand for holidays in Europe is growing every year.

In addition, Gorsheneva emphasizes, -30% for the first quarter is not so much when compared with forecasts at the beginning of the year, when they talked about 40-45%. A strengthened ruble coupled with a rather weak euro has already begun to contribute to the growth of demand for holidays in Europe, and it is possible that this influence will allow the decline in demand to be reduced to -20% by the end of the second quarter.

Today, only Greece is fighting to actively attract Russian tourists, but it has its own geopolitical motives, in addition to financial ones. Otherwise, at the state level, with the exception of Turkey, not a single European country is taking steps to create special conditions to attract Russians specifically. There is still time before the high season, so the situation may change, but demand will already grow thanks to the strong ruble and the weakening euro.

For Russia, a decrease in tourist flow to Europe will provide an opportunity for the active development of domestic tourism. For example, quite impressive financial and resource injections into Crimea will strengthen its own tourism position. Improving the quality of service in existing hotels, as well as opening new ones, may be especially relevant for domestic tourism. Given the ambiguous situation in Europe, Kirikov predicts, tours to EU countries are unlikely to become top destinations in 2015, and the reorientation of Russian travel companies to domestic travel will be more promising than ever.

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For reference. In 2015, 17.1 million tourists visited Moscow, most of whom were Russian citizens. . . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . . The importance of developing the tourism industry was emphasized by Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin.

“The Moscow authorities have approached the figure according to which the share of the gross product from tourism will be approximately 500 billion rubles. This is a significant figure.”, - noted Sergei Sobyanin.

According to the mayor, the number of tourists in Moscow is increasing from year to year. “The number of tourists in the capital is increasing year by year and this is a good indicator. . . . . .

According to the data he has seen, Moscow is the most popular tourist destination in Russia. . . . . . The first positions are occupied by Paris, New York and London.

The number of tourists who would like to return to Moscow again exceeds 92 percent of the total number. . . . . .

. . . . . Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has ordered an analysis of the city's tourism industry in the coming months.

. . . . .

Moscow expects to receive 17.5 million tourists in 2016, reported Mayor Sergei Sobyanin at the presidium of the capital's government.

“The tourism industry plays a significant role in the city’s economy; we are approaching the point that the share of tourism consumption in the gross regional product will be about 500 billion rubles. This is a significant volume. It’s good that every year the number of tourists does not decrease, but increases. Over the past year, the number of tourists increased by almost 500 thousand people, and, according to travel agencies, this flow will only increase,” Sobyanin said.

The gradual increase in tourist flow is associated with the holding of major sports competitions in the capital - the 2016 Ice Hockey World Championship, starting on May 6, and two football tournaments - the 2017 Confederations Cup and the 2018 World Cup.

In the next few years, the tourist flow will only increase. Authorities expect 18.4 million people to visit the capital in 2017, and 19.5 million in 2018.

In 2015, 17.1 million tourists visited Moscow, most of whom were Russian citizens.

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